Since the dramatic turn in the political ecosystem of Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos state, with the Labour Party winning more votes than the ruling All Progressives Congress in the recently held presidential election, the tone and temperament of camapaign in the state has taken an unsavoury but dangerous dimensions with major actors playing ethnic and religious cards.

The fact that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the President-elect suffered a historic loss to the opposition for the first time in Lagos, a state known as his political fortress and strongest base, has changed the conversation about what the outcome of the governorship elections on March 11th, 2023 could be. The governorship election is the next battlefield to determine who is in charge of Lagos. Will the Tinubu dynasty come to a sudden eclipse? What factors would determine the who occupies Alausa, the seat of government for the next four years.

Hitherto, that is before the outcome of the presidential election, campaigns were issues-based and the APC was in a comfort zone. But, not anymore. There have been twists and turns that have made the APC to campaign as it has never done before in Lagos. All the key people are out there sweating it out. This is one battle that the APC cannot afford to lose.

Governor Sanwo-Olu on a television station on Wednesday gave three reasons for the Labour Party outperforming the APC in Lagos state. He spoke about the Muslim/Muslim ticket of the APC which did not resonate with the Christian community which has a large presence in Lagos; the desire of Ibo people to have one of their own as a president and therefore went for a candidate of Igbo stock to vote for; and some internal wranglings within the APC.

Since the return to democracy in 1999, only the party that Asiwaju belonged to has ruled Lagos state; whether it is AD, or ACD, or ACN or APC. Tinubu, who was the governor of Lagos state from 1999 to 2007 had been succeeded by the candidates of his choice in every subsequent election held in the state. Starting from his Chief of Staff during his administration as the governor, Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) to governor Ambode and to the the current governor who is seeking reelection to the same position, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Tinubu has never left any stone unturned as a kingmaker who decides who carries on his legacy as “the architect of modern Lagos”.

But the emergence of the candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, a gifted rhetoric who appealed to different sentiments and was able to score the highest votes in Lagos state; the tide had suddenly turned with the Labour Party wanting to ride on that wave and momentum to cruise to power in Labour. That is like riding the storm and the traditional controllers of Lagos would not take any of that.

With the outcome of the presidential election as the APC’s archilles heel, all the major parties have stepped up their games, appealing to primordial, ethnic and religious sentiments as a strategy to win votes but in the process further fragmenting the fabric that holds the society together. Whoever wins is going to preside a state populated by all tribes and all religions. The division is therefore not necessary.

Apparently, Obi’s winning has cast an emergency spotlight on the candidate of the Labour party in the governorship election, Gbadebo Rhodes Vivour, who until after the presidential election was an underdog to his other contenders the candidate of All Progressives Congress and Peoples Democratic Party, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu and that of the PDP Dr. Abdul Azeez Adediran popularly known as Jandor. They were the frontrunners until the emergence of Labour Party as a third force nationally but a first force in Lagos.

With this development, there is a growing fear in the camp of the ruling party that the Labour Party Candidate might steal their show by riding on the current optics of the majority of Lagos residents who had voted for Peter Obi. and with that, the long-standing reign of the All Progressives Congress might come to the end of it after all. Having diagnosed why the Labour Party did so well in Lagos State, the ruling government had to look for ways of breaking into Labour’s strongholds.

How Ethnicity Has Crept In Lagos Political Landscape

The tribal fisticuffs in Lagos have been a primordial phenomenon, particularly between the Yorubas and the Igbos. It appears the trend of ethnicity usually becomes more obvious during the electioneering periods. Additionally, politicians fuel tribalism to polarise the advancement of democracy in the state. Therefore tribe has always been played up like a ding-dong game in politics of Lagos State.

Politicians and their supporters have resolved to employ ethnicity and tribalism as their trump cards to make their candidates win the election. Although this is not the first time ethnic slurs are being deployed during the electioneering periods, but it has assumed a viral dimension in this dispensation. It is more pronounced and rampant by different actors on social media and in the streets of Lagos and this has raised more tension among residents of the state.

No doubt, the growing tension is becoming more escalated especially as some Yoruba are pointing accusative fingers at the people of Igbo extractions who reside in Lagos as the reason why Tinubu did not win in Lagos during the presidential elections, indicating that the Igbos voted for Peter Obi who is from Anambra state.

This has led to different incendiary statements and violent actions that are tribally originated among Lagos residents, particularly the Yoruba and Ibo extractions. For instance, there has been a “My Lagos, not your Lagos” slogan among some of the political supporters to discriminate against another tribal group.

Concerned that the influence of bigotry and ethnicity might disrupt the peaceful coexistence which had existed for a long time between the Ibo and the Yoruba people to eschew tribalism in the Cosmopolitan city, political analysts and stakeholders have been warning the political parties and their support to desist from the comments that lead to post-electoral violence.

Speaking on Arise Television on the subject of ethnicity in Lagos politics, Yemi Adamolekun, Executive Director of Enough is Enough (EiE), an organisation focused on championing the course of good governance and public accountability in Nigeria appealed to the politicians and their supporters to ignore ethnic baiting, rather they should focus on the important conversation which is the merit.

“Lagos is playing with a very dangerous tone with ethnic baiting. The candidate of the Labour Party is partly Igbo, and partly Yoruba but equally married to an Igbo lady. We have turned this narrative around”. People are using that to de-market a citizen of Nigeria in this time and age.

That has raised other issues about other candidates too. Some have evn reminded Nigerians that that Asiwaju. Bola Tinubu is married to an Itsekiri lady and his son Seyi is also married to an Igbo lady from Anambra state. “So if we want to talk about who people are married to as having legitimacy to be Lagosians, it’s a challenge,” Yemi Adamolekun said.

People are also sending reminders that “Mr. Tinubu himself is not from Lagos, and neither is the current governor, and I am saying this particularly because if we are not careful, we are all in this Lagos together, and if we are not careful how we frame this conversation, it will affect all of us on election day”.

Campaigns have also moved to religious homes with different endorsements flying from the pulpits and different religious bodies issuing endorsement for one candidate or another.

Political pundits are worried about these developments which are not good for the polity. People must be made to choose their governor freely withoutany blackmail or intimidation.