… Nigeria is in Big Trouble

… No, Nigeria’s Economy is Not Collapsing

The gulf is widening and Nigerians are more polarized than ever; not on ethnic or religious grounds but on the performance of the economy. Perspectives on the overall performance of Tinubu’s administration and its management of the economy are divergent. While some see the glass as half-full others see it as half-empty. The question: Is the life of an average Nigerian better now than it was 15 months ago?

Below are the two sharply at variance opinions on the governance style and the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as expressed by two media personalities, who both show insights into what is going on with the administration. They expressed their views on their different X handles. It is part of NDR’s contribution to public discourse on the issue of governance.

Urgent Message for President Tinubu: Nigeria’s is in Big Trouble by Dele Momodu

Your Excellency, I have decided to write this open letter to you as a concerned friend and Brother. As you’re aware, I’m a member of opposition but you and I have had a long history together.

I owe you only one thing, TRUTH. It is very obvious that the first thing that takes flight in the Presidential villa is TRUTH. The reason is simple. Some Nigerians are experts in hijacking men and women of power. The deification process is often swift and irreversible. I’m writing you today, not because I expect you to act on my suggestions, but to put it on record that someone gave you the true picture of things. I’m also hoping that some of your friends will read and interpret to you, in a sober moment.

1. Nigeria is in big trouble. Our economy has virtually collapsed. And what’s the way out? You’ve been wasting too much money at a time that requires absolute frugality. Please, stop this reckless propensity for wasting scarce resources. Purchasing Presidential jets, building outlandish monuments, distributing cash as palliatives, etc, are signs of a failed and careless government. If you can curb the excessive spending of your government, you will free up a lot of resources for serious development.

2. I believe you’re frittering away our resources because you desperately crave a second term. But the best assurance of a second term is PERFORMANCE. Nigerians are not expecting you to turn water into wine but they don’t want you to turn their wines into water. Here are my tips: invest in vocational skills for our highly talented youths who can demonstrate their capacity for hard work. Invest heavily in local agriculture. Upgrade our institutions of learning. Giving cash to politicians to distribute is unhealthy and unhelpful… It is the height of cluelessness.

3. In the name of God, beware of those hero-worshippers at the National Assembly who have turned you into God. NDUME is your best friend. Listen to him. There’s danger ahead.

4. You must enforce DISCIPLINE as a leader. Your new disciple, NYESOM WIKE, has publicly disrespected you in the FUBARA matter. You need to sanction him before he throws Nigeria into total chaos.

Nigeria’s Economy Is Not Collapsing. Far From It! By Reno Omokri

I read your open letter to President Bola Tinubu, in which you said, “Our economy has virtually collapsed”, among other things. Respectfully, the facts do not support your assertions, and in your open letter, you did not provide any facts. Only opinions. So, please let me present some facts that contradict your opinions.

Firstly, only yesterday, the International Monetary Fund projected that due to the reforms being undertaken by the current administration, Nigeria will have a 3.1% GDP growth rate in 2024. This is one of the best projections for an African country in 2024, and does not signal an economy that has ‘virtually collapsed.’

Secondly, Nigeria had a record high of ₦6.52 trillion trade surplus in the first quarter of 2024. This has never happened before. We routinely had trade deficits in the past. This means that because of the monetary reforms by the current government, Nigeria is now exporting significantly more than it is importing, and the growth is largely in the non-oil sector.

For example, Nigeria is now a net exporter of cement to Europe and a growing exporter of refined petroleum products to Europe and West African states. Ghana, a fellow petroleum exporting country, is largely dependent on LPG from Nigeria. This projects growth, not collapse.

Thirdly, in terms of revenue, all Nigerian states, bar none, have received significantly higher federal allocations since May 29, 2023, than they were receiving under the Buhari regime. Each state now gets at least 45% more federal allocation, with Nasarawa getting almost 100% more and Anambra getting 70% more, whereas their wage bill has not increased.

The above projects economic strength rather than collapse.

Fourthly, according to Financial Derivatives (FDC), with a Return on Investment of 22.90%, Nigeria’s Stock Exchange is now the most profitable capital market on Earth, bar none. Please note that. Bar none. The National Bureau of Statistics has also corroborated this. For the first time in our history, the all-share index (ASI) of the Nigerian Stock Exchange crossed the 100,000 mark in 2024.

I would not categorise such growth as collapse, and I am sure investors who smiled to the bank would not either.

Fifthly, capital inflow into Nigeria increased by 66.27% this year. This is probably why Fitch and S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s economy to a Stable B, and why foreign inflows into the capital market jumped fivefold in the first quarter of 2024 to N93.37 billion from N18.12 billion in the same period last year.

Sixthly, despite clearing the backlog of foreign exchange debts owed to foreign airlines and other foreign investors by the Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigeria’s foreign reserve hit a year-to-date high of an estimated $34 billion this year. How can a nation with such a healthy reserve be said to be on the verge of economic collapse?

Finally, the Student Loan promised is now a reality and is being disbursed. That means Nigeria is about to witness a dramatic increase in its human resources, as more youths will have access to education.

Therefore, bearing the above in mind, is it not possible, that you may have focused too much on assumption and too little on facts to come to your conclusion that Nigeria’s economy is collapsing?