Unlike the Edo off-cycle governorship election, where the campaigns were intense and political advertisements and messages dominated the airwaves, nothing much has been heard about the Ondo governorship election. Is this due to a change in political strategy by the political parties and their candidates or a reflection of a predictable outcome that the incumbent who is also in the race has performed well and the opposition is pulling back? Another school of thought opines that the result may not be determined by issues of concern to the people but by other factors beyond the ballot box.

With just fourteen days to the election, the campaigns may not have been widely seen on major national television networks, but mobilisation is going on within the state. The parties and their candidates are jostling for votes and making promises to the electorate. There have been some radio jingles and television adverts, but it is clear that politicians are not committing too much of their resources to them. There is underground horse-trading and movements of political heavyweights across the political divides. The election outcome would also be influenced by the sincerity and commitment of party leaders and members in keeping faith with their candidates. Some of the aspirants are still nursing the pain of how they were schemed out of the contest.

There are 18 local government areas in Ondo State namely: Akoko North-East, Akoko North-West, Akoko South-East, Akoko South-West, Akure North, Akure South, Ese Odo, Idanre, Ifedore, Ilaje, Okeigbo, Irele, Odigbo, Okitipupa, Ondo East, Ondo West, Ose and Owo. The economy of Ondo State is the sixth largest in Nigeria and is dominated by crude oil and crop production. Ondo State produced more than 75,000 tons of quality cocoa, the largest Bitumen deposit in Africa, and the longest coastline in Nigeria of about 180km.

The last governorship election in October 2020 was won by the Late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who won re-election for a second term with 292,830, defeating PDP Eyitayo Jegede, who scored 195,791, ZLP Agboola Ajayi, who scored 65,127, and other minor party candidates. Akeredolu received 51.1% of the votes, Jegede received 34.2%, and Ajayi received 12.1%.

Preparations for the 2024 Elections
By November 6, INEC will conduct its mock accreditation in selected centres. On November 8, the candidates in the race will sign a peace accord facilitated by the National Peace Committee, led by former Head of State General Abdulsalami Abubakar.

According to the INEC Chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu, nearly 72 percent of registered voters have collected their Permanent Voter Cards, while the mock accreditation exercise in selected polling units for November 6 will be to test result uploads on the INEC Result Viewing portal.

Convinced of its readiness, INEC says it is aware of flashpoints in some local government areas that have drawn the attention of security agencies.” Based on the high number of registered voters who have collected their Permanent Voter Cards, INEC is optimistic that the mock accreditation exercise in selected polling units for November 6 will go well to test result uploads on the INEC Result Viewing portal.

“As early as next week, the Commission will undertake a final readiness assessment of our preparations for the Ondo election, meet with our officials, engage with stakeholders, and interact with the security agencies and transport providers,” Prof Yakubu said.

There have been feeble attempts to call for the removal of the Ondo State Resident Electoral Commissioner Mrs Oluwatoyin Babalola on the grounds of being an indigene of Ondo State and for being close to some politicians in Ondo State. The INEC has refuted such claims arguing succinctly that as a policy it does not post RECs to their States of origin. Fact checks by the NDR revealed that the two parents of the REC are from Igbara-Odo in Ekiti South-West Local Government and not from Ondo State.

A Two-Horse Race and the Candidates’ Programmes
A preview of the election and analysis of the situation on the ground shows the contest to be a two-horse race. It is essentially a race between the candidate of the APC Governor Ayedatiwa and that of the PDP, Mr. Agboola Ajayi. Coincidentally, Mr. Lucky Ayedatiwa took over from Mr. Agboola Ajayi as the Deputy Governor of the state when he fell out of favour with the former Governor Late Akeredolu in his first term in office. The 18 registered political candidates are fielding candidates in the election.

The PDP ticket of Ajayi and Akingbaso has released a 7-point Agenda on how to revitalise Ondo State. This ambitious blueprint according to the campaign organisation is designed to transform the state’s fortunes, improve the lives of its citizens, and unlock its vast economic potential. The agenda focuses on improved security, education, and healthcare. It will also focus on fostering economic development through commerce and investment, leveraging the state’s mineral resources to create jobs for graduates in different fields and stimulate economic growth.

Governor Ayedatiwa’s campaign has been to showcase his achievements since he became governor. He has promised to tackle insecurity more intensively by deploying more security personnel. According to him, “Unlike other candidates making promises they won’t fulfill, I don’t believe in empty words. I will put in action and deliver good governance.”

“What we are seeing at the rallies are indications that Governor Aiyedatiwa’s programmes, policies, and projects resonate with the people hence the resolve to see him continue in office for another term of four years. Beyond his achievements in office in the last nine and half months, Governor Aiyedatiwa’s transparency, passion for all-around development, and inclusive governance style have continued to endear him to the people thus daily growing his popularity and supporters’ base across the 18 local government areas” explains the Commissioner for Information and Orientation, Otunba Wale Akinlosotu,

The Chairman of the Ondo State National Campaign Council of the All Progressives Congress and Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has said that his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), would do everything to win the Ondo State governorship election landslide. According to him, their campaign will be easy as the party’s candidate because he has undertaken laudable projects that will make him a good sell to voters.

Gale of Defections
State Chairman of the party, Engr. Ade Adetimehin, said all former Chairmen of the PDP in the state have defected to the APC. He said all gladiators in the PDP from across the political wards have joined the APC. We are coordinating ourselves and making the party proud. We are conscious politically. We assure you that we are going to make you proud. We will return Aiyedatiwa as Governor. PDP cannot parade the leadership we parade today.”

It is on record that supporters of the former Governor Olusegun Mimiko have crossed over to the APC. The defectors, about 29 in number, had previously worked with Mimiko during his eight-year tenure and now aim to support Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa’s re-election bid. Though Mimiko was not physically present to speak on the day of their crossover, it is believed that Mimiko said, that national officers and bigwigs of the APC must be available to witness his joining the party. This could happen at the party’s grand finale of the campaign to be graced by the President or Vice President.

This week, the deputy governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party Mrs Susan Alabi defected to the All Progressives Congress. She has also resigned from her membership of the party. Welcoming her to the APC at the party’s campaign in Oke Agbe, the headquarters of the Akoko North-West Local Government Area on Tuesday, the candidate of the APC and state governor, Mr Lucky Aiyedatiwa, urged party members to integrate the defector and work for the party to achieve victory in the November 16 governorship election in the state.

The PDP has had its share of defectors crossing over. Hon. Agboola Ajayi, the PDP’s candidate recently announced that he had welcomed about 10,000 APC defectors to PDP. The party received defectors from the All Progressives Congress (APC), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Governor of Oyo State, Engr. Seyi Makinde received the defectors at a campaign rally of the PDP in Ore, headquarters of Odigbo Local Government. The party has also welcomed a former Chairman of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Dr Benson Enikuomehin, and over 200 others into its fold.

Vote Buying and Federal Might as Winning Strategies
Many watchers of politics in Ondo State for this governorship election believe that what transpired in Edo State during their election would be a child’s play in Ondo State on November 16. Vote buying was prevalent in the Edo election and the security agencies especially the Police reportedly joined the political fray. Several PDP members were arrested ahead of the election and taken to Abuja.

Ordinarily, the APC is regarded as an unpopular brand nationally based on the hardship imposed by its reform programmes which had made life difficult. But the party got elected in Edo and fears are that the feat may be repeated in the Ondo election. Analysts believe that the ruling party would deploy every arsenal at its disposal especially the security agencies to gain an upper hand in the election. The APC is looking to and working towards the re-election of President Bola Tinubu already. That is the PDP’s Achilles Hill in this election.