In Nigeria, the credibility of electoral processes is a critical issue, reflecting the broader health of its democracy. As Edo and Ondo states prepare for off-cycle gubernatorial elections on 21 September 2024 and 16 November 2024 respectively, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) the security agencies, the political parties, and the judiciary face the crucial task of regaining and maintaining public trust in the electoral process.

Historically, elections in the country have generally been plagued by allegations of bias, inefficiency, and corruption. As such, whether Nigerians are willing to trust those saddled with the responsibility of conducting these upcoming off-cycle elections is both timely and significant. Issues such as voter suppression, ballot box snatching, and collusion with political actors have eroded public confidence in the country’s ability to conduct free, fair, and credible elections.

In recent years, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the body saddled with the responsibility of organizing and supervising elections and political parties has undertaken several reforms to improve the electoral process. The introduction of technologies such as the Smart Card Reader and the INEC Results Viewing Portal (IReV) have been significant. These innovations are intended to enhance transparency and reduce the incidence of fraud.

Also, the electoral body in 2010 established the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) to promote synergy, coordination, and cooperation in election security. Additionally, efforts to improve the voter registration process and the timely dissemination of voter education have been acknowledged as steps in the right direction.

Again, INEC according to the Report on the 2023 General Election developed an Election Violence Mitigation and Advocacy Tool & Election Security Threat Assessment (EVMAT &ESTA) to generate opinions on potential triggers of electoral violence before, during, and after the election.

The instrument is also designed to identify security grey areas and provide factual evidence for the Commission and security agencies to develop mitigating strategies against the possible outbreak of violence in an election in Nigeria. The ESTA is a robust security threat tracker. It provides blow-by-blow factual data on threats that could hinder the successful conduct of the 2023 General Election.

Electorates in Edo and Ondo states want all those involved in the electoral process to play their roles well and live up to expectations. Elder Kelly Dunia, an Ososo-based community leader in Edo state would want the anti-graft agencies who are members of ICCES to arrest and prosecute anybody trying to buy votes in the off-cycle election.

Mr. Kehinde Ojuolape, a registered voter in Akoko North East Local Government Council of Ondo State would want a situation where all INEC ad hoc staff are properly trained and thus prevent any hitches during the election.

Mr. Osadebamwen Osaretin, an electorate in Benin City said: “The issue of trust remains a nagging one for many electorates. Especially, those who have just come out of the last election’s experience where findings by many Civil society groups conflict with the announced result of the 2023 general elections. In the forthcoming Governorship election, those involved in the election process must deal with the staff responsible if the commission is not in collusion. Let the people see that a robber of the public vote is punished then the trust would be high”.

Public sentiment towards INEC and other agencies involved in the election remains cautious. While some Nigerians acknowledge the commission’s efforts to improve, skepticism persists. Mr. Kehinde Ojuolape, a community leader in Ondo state said:” The issue is politics. The reaction of an average Nigerian to political matters is based purely on their political interest. The trust in INEC and the electoral process will be based purely on who wins. Those that lost out will find faulty steps INEC made that informed their defeat which may or may not be logical, but just to justify such allegations. Although, the court’s decision may go either way, whoever loses out, will blame INEC as the source of their failure”.

Another opinion leader, Pastor F.E. Bamiduro said: “To the best of my knowledge, an average Nigerian can not trust INEC. Their past performance justifies the lack of trust. They always romance the ruling party”.

The effectiveness of INEC’s reforms is yet to be proven in a highly competitive electoral environment. In pre-election surveys and public discourse, many Nigerians express a wait-and-see attitude. Trust, once broken, is hard to rebuild, and many voters are wary of being overly optimistic.

The Edo and Ondo Elections: A Litmus Test

The upcoming elections in Edo and Ondo states are seen as a litmus test for INEC’s reforms. The political climate in both states is tense, with high stakes for the major parties involved. For instance, the Edo gubernatorial election will see incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) face off against his former party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). The Ondo election similarly features a competitive race that has the potential to be hotly contested.

INEC, in its Report of the 2023 General Election noted under Issues and Challenges Associated with the Edo Election that: “Violence during the election was moderate during the Presidential and National Assembly Election than it was during the State House of Assembly and Supplementary Election

“Disruption and Obstruction of the Electoral Process: violence disrupted polling in the 71 Polling Units in 11 Registration Areas leading to Supplementary elections in three state constituencies”, the report stressed.

The situation was similar in Ondo state as the electoral body in the report said: “The security was not adequate in some local governments as reported especially, at Ile Oluji/Okeigbo and Idanre Local Government Areas. The Election was characterized by violence there, even though some areas had been identified as flash points before the election”.

Civil society organizations (CSOs) and international observers also play a crucial role in bolstering electoral integrity. These groups provide oversight and can help ensure that electoral laws and regulations are adhered to. Their presence in the Edo and Ondo elections will be vital in providing independent assessments of the electoral process and in holding INEC accountable.

The trust of Nigerians in INEC and all the agencies involved in the ICCES is not easily won. As the Ondo and Edo off-cycle elections approach, the commission faces the challenge of demonstrating its commitment to a transparent and credible electoral process. Success in these elections could mark a turning point, helping to restore public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral system. Conversely, any significant failings could further entrench distrust and cynicism among the electorate.

IPC Town Hall Meetings on Rebuilding Trust

The International Press Centre under the EUSDGN 2 project has been holding stakeholders’ meetings on rebuilding trust in the electoral processes, institutions, and elections. Some of the issues raised have identified factors and strategies to restore confidence and stem voter apathy.

The dialogues agree that several important constituent segments besides the INEC impact the electoral process. The electoral process is an ecosystem with various components with each playing its part in a wider effort to ensure the conduct of credible elections and to deepen democratic culture.

However, no matter how well an Electoral Commission adheres to these, the level of trust in the electoral process won’t be significant if broader issues in the electoral ecosystem remain not only unaddressed but act as fuel in initiating, propagating, and sustaining a wider trust and integrity deficit. The meetings also posit that Nigeria will be doing a massive disservice to the electoral process in particular and to the collective efforts in building democracy in general if the broader electoral and political ecosystem within which elections are conducted in Nigeria is neglected.

Ultimately, the willingness of Nigerians to trust INEC will depend on the commission’s ability to deliver on its promises of reform and integrity. The stakes are high, and the eyes of the nation are on INEC, waiting to see if it can rise to the occasion and facilitate elections that are truly reflective of the will of the people.