As the Ekiti State off-cycle governorship election draws near, several issues are likely to shape the campaign, amid rising expectations that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will deliver a credible, free, and transparent poll and fulfil its pre-election promises.
Scheduled for June 20, 2026, the election is another of Nigeria’s off-cycle governorship polls, held outside the country’s regular electoral calendar. Such elections typically result from exceptional circumstances, including court rulings, electoral disputes, or other constitutional and legal developments that disrupt the normal tenure cycle of elected officials.
As with other off-cycle elections, the Ekiti poll is attracting keen interest from stakeholders and is widely viewed as an early signal of what may lie ahead in the 2027 general elections. It is also driving political calculations, strategic alliances, and broader national debate.
INEC has cleared 13 political parties and candidates to contest the election, producing 13 male governorship candidates and four deputy governorship candidates in that category. But attention has centred mainly on two leading contenders. They are Mr Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, and Dr Wole Oluyede of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), his main challenger.
While some political observers believe the poll may not be fiercely contested because of the state’s political climate, several key issues are still expected to shape both the conduct and outcome of the election and could offer clues about what to expect in 2027, being the penultimate election before the general elections next year.
INEC’s Preparedness
INEC’s level of preparation will be crucial to the credibility and success of the June 20 off-cycle election. The poll also gives the commission, now led by Prof Joash Amupitan, a chance to demonstrate improvements in key areas that could shape the outcome. It will be his first full election in office, since the Anambra governorship poll was widely seen as having been largely planned by his predecessor before he assumed office.
In a recent media briefing, INEC’s Resident Electoral Commissioner in Ekiti State, Dr Bunmi Omoseyindemi, said the commission has prepared to deliver a free and fair election and has put measures in place to ensure a hitch-free exercise.
Attention will, therefore, be on INEC to ensure early deployment of logistics, since delays were a major concern in past elections and undermined voter turnout and public confidence. The commission is therefore expected to distribute sensitive and non-sensitive materials on time, open polling units early, and coordinate operations effectively across both urban and rural areas.
Another major concern is the performance of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS). Introduced to strengthen election transparency, the system has drawn mixed reactions in previous polls, largely because of technical glitches and transmission failures.
INEC is expected to be fully prepared for a smooth election, and the Ekiti poll will serve as a test of its readiness for the 2027 general elections.
The Threat of Insecurity
Although Ekiti State is regarded as more peaceful than some states in previous elections, insecurity remains a serious issue that requires close attention ahead of the governorship poll. It is a major concern for key stakeholders, including civil society groups, political parties, and voters, who are usually the most affected during elections.
The National Peace Commission has raised concerns about rising insecurity as part of efforts to promote a peaceful governorship election in Ekiti State. The warning reflects broader security challenges across the country and the risk that they could affect the state.
Possible security threats during the election include political violence, clashes between party supporters, voter intimidation, disruption of campaign activities, and attacks on electoral officials or materials.
To address this, INEC is expected to work proactively with security agencies to prevent threats to lives and property. Failure to do so could undermine voter participation and the credibility of the election.
Menace of Vote Buying
Vote buying remains one of the gravest threats to the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral system. It also weakens democratic governance by turning the pursuit of public office into a means of personal gain.
Vote buying in Nigeria involves candidates or their agents offering cash, goods, or promises of future benefits, such as jobs or community projects, in exchange for votes. It has remained a recurring feature of the country’s elections since the return to democracy in 1999, although its methods have evolved.
Vote buying also distorts elections in Nigeria by undermining their credibility and legitimacy and helping to produce unqualified leaders. It further weakens good governance, as politicians who spend heavily to bribe voters often seek to recover those costs through corruption once in office.
By implication, vote buying erodes public trust in the electoral system and democratic institutions, contributing to voter apathy. A case study was a general report of vote buying during the Anambra off-cycle gubernatorial elections, in which politicians allegedly paid voters to vote for their political parties.
This is another event that may resurface during the Ekiti state off-cycle election if stringent measures are not adopted to curb this act during the poll, as politicians might use a similar strategy or adopt another style to bribe voters in the state election.
The Electoral Act 2026 imposes stiff penalties for vote buying. Under Section 22, anyone convicted may be fined up to ₦5 million, imprisoned for up to two years, or face both penalties at the court’s discretion.
The law also disqualifies anyone convicted of vote buying or vote selling from contesting any public elective office in Nigeria for at least 10 years.
With the new electoral law in place, INEC and relevant security agencies, especially the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), are expected to work together to curb vote buying and help ensure a credible governorship election in Ekiti State.
Voter Apathy
Voter apathy is another major factor likely to shape the outcome of the Ekiti State off-cycle governorship election, as declining public trust in the electoral process continues to discourage participation in Nigeria.
Voter apathy has been driven by growing concerns over vote buying, electoral violence, and economic hardship, all of which have reinforced the belief that elections do not bring meaningful change.
Low turnout has become a recurring feature of off-cycle elections, especially among young voters. Ekiti may follow the same pattern, as economic hardship and distrust in political leaders could dampen enthusiasm despite the significance of the poll.
Stakeholders are expected to step up voter education and mobilisation efforts across the state to improve turnout, as participation levels will be a key measure of public confidence in both the election and Nigeria’s democratic process.
Political Parties, Alignments and Disputes
Internal disputes and shifting alliances among political parties could influence the Ekiti off-cycle governorship election. As the poll approaches, parties are stepping up negotiations, coalition talks, and strategic realignments to strengthen their chances.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) appears more united and organised, aided by the advantages of incumbency and the backing of influential figures in the state and at the federal level. By contrast, opposition parties are still grappling with internal alignments as they try to unseat the incumbent governor.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) remain mired in leadership disputes at the national level, weakening their ability to build a strong challenge against the ruling party. The opposition’s lack of unity could make the election as uncompetitive as previous polls in the state.
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