Reactions have continued to trail the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announcement of a drop in the unemployment rate in Nigeria to 4.1 per cent in the first three months of the year 2023. The announcement contradicts general perception of a growing army of unemployed people in the country.

The bureau disclosed this in its recent report titled Nigeria Labour Force Statistics Report Q4 2022 & Q1 2023″, which is based on its revised methodology of survey which was conducted through the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) in line with the International Labour Organization (ILO) guidelines to present the in-depth analysis.

The data bureau noted that its new methodology was focused on the sample taken from 35,520 households across the country from the last quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, indicating that the survey revealed that only 4.1 per cent of Nigerians are totally unemployed.

The NBS further stated that the majority of Nigerians are engaged in some jobs for at least one hour a week for pay or profit, adding the new methodology has excluded them from the lists of unemployed persons in the country, instead some of them are classified as the underemployed citizens.

“The data collection for the revised NLFS is based on a sample of 35,520 households nationwide. It is conducted continuously throughout the year, with national-level results produced quarterly and state-level results at the end of a full year.

Reacting to the NBS unemployment data, Kingsley Ndimele, an economic expert and financial coach, questioned the metrics used by the bureau. In his conversation with NDR, he noted that the reality of Nigerian economy and employment status does not reflect a drop in the country’s unemployment situation.

He argued that the recent inflation and the economic nosediving caused by the removal of fuel subsidy and lack of stable electricity has caused most small scale businesses to fold up, and as result many Nigerians have become unemployed.

Although NBS is the most reliable body to consult for data, their metrics for coming to such a conclusion must be questioned. When we look at the average unemployment rate in the past five years, it has been 2 digits. For instance, in 2021, it was 33.3%. So, for them to submit this report, we need to ask them to re-explain themselves.

“Also, the current reality of the does not even show that unemployment has reduced, imagine the rate at which the japa syndrome is spreading in the country, and that is because Nigerians cannot lay their hands on jobs anymore.

“We see how inflation, increase in fuel price have affected MSMES, and small scale businesses are forced to fold up, while some of them are laying their staff off. And you know that Nigeria economy is developed by private sector, if the same private sector is laying people off how come we are saying unemployment has gone down so drastically. I think at this point, independent bodies should release their data as well for us to compare and contrast”, Mr Ndimele said.

Speaking earlier on Arise Television, Professor Uche Uwaleke, Director, Institute of Capital Market Studies, Nasarawa State, insisted that the Bureau of Statistics figures do not accurately reflect the situation in Nigeria.

He stated that while the NBS might have followed the international methodology to ascertain its figure, the figure might affect the decision making of the country to eradicate the scourge of unemployment in the country.

“This number does not reflect the true picture, because yes you have a rising inflation and unemployment that is supposed to be higher is said to be on the decline, the numbers are not such that will help the policymaking decision at the macro level.

“This is why I suggest here that we need to align with international practice, at the same time we need to recognise that we have peculiar circumstance. In addition to the numbers published by the NBS, we need to develop our specific threshold, because, in our case, if we use the number we have to make policy decisions, we will be wrong”

Dr Yemi Kale Former DG of the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, Senior Partner KPMG Nigeria, however. opined that ‘some misuse statistics because they are neither willing nor prepared to face the reality & truth exposed by statistics. This is not the problem of statistics, but rather, a problem of the ill motive of the users of statistics….”

“When we understand that the primary purpose of data is not politics or ego boosting/chest-thumping but evidence-based policy & to understand problems and profer solutions and then monitor the success of those policies we will get it. But apparently, we are not ready

“So much for the informal sector workers were never captured lie. Lying unintelligently. All that changed is allowable hours. Informal workers often tend to even work longer hours than formal workers. They are usually up before and often close after we formal sector people are home”.