As the race for who becomes the next governor of Edo State in the September 21st, 2024 off-cycle gubernatorial election continues to intensify and gather momentum, the stakeholders have continued to strategise to secure the majority of the peoples’ votes and return their candidates duly elected.

With less than two months to the opening of polls, the Nigeria Democratic Report (NDR) visited Edo to feel the pulse of the people and gather facts on the ground to preview the likely outcome of the polls.

The campaigns have progressed well so far except for the incident that happened on the Benin airport road when Mr Phillip Shuaibu arrived in the State after the Federal High Court in Abuja invalidated his impeachment and ordered his reinstatement. An Inspector of Police lost his life in the incident and scores of persons were injured.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), had conducted all its pre-election formalities of concluding registration of eligible voters. The INEC triumphed over initial setbacks of floods in its offices which damaged several Bimodal registration machines. INEC quickly mobilised replacements and completed the exercise within the time advertised for the event.

Edo State is one of the most politically diverse states in the country, and political pundits have predicted that the poll will be keenly contested, especially as the three major political parties in the country, the Peoples Democratic Party, the All Progressives Congress, and the Labour Party have thrown their hats in the ring in the election. Seventeen political parties are squaring up in the contest. While the PDP is the incumbent party in the state, the APC holds the power at the center, and the Labour Party, through the relevance it attracted in the last general election is a force to be reckoned with in the State. It is a clear three-horse race.

Amidst these, is the heightened fear of the credibility of the election by concerned stakeholders even as politicians rev up their campaigns. However, these are some key factors that may shape the outcome of the poll on September 21st, 2024.
INEC Preparedness and Trust
The off-cycle poll will be conducted on the background of mistrust among the some of electorates in the state. This is based on their perception in the last election in which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), where election results were not transmitted electronically in real-time. This made them INEC to be graded below average by some of the residents, including local and international Civil Society Organisations. INEC’s failure to meet the expectations of Nigerian citizens, despite repeated promises, still creates some doubts about what may happen in the election suffice it to say that all eyes are on the Electoral Umpire will remedy the situation.

What the People Think
Speaking with NDR, Dr. Bartholomew Okoudo, the President of the Conference of Non-Governmental Organisations in Edo State, expressed his worries about the election, stating that even though the electoral umpire has promised a free and fair election, the commission must brace up to perform better in the coming polls. He is somehow pessimistic thinking that INEC could break its record of mistrust. He, however, ended his position with some hope: “INEC, as we all know, dashed people’s hope in the last general election, but you know that INEC, just like other institutions, is not perfect and has its shortcomings, but they have continued to assure us that the Edo election will be very credible and fair. From the assurance given by the INEC chairman and other top officials, they have what it takes, as they have been given all support by the government.”

Insecurity Challenge
The challenge of insecurity is no longer news in Nigeria, as many parts of the country are facing the menace of violence and insurgency. The Edo election is also likely to face a similar trend, as events in the past have suggested. In May, there were some reported cases of gunshots in some parts of the state, a development that created tension among the residents. Although security agencies doused the tension, it is hoped that such incidents will not rear their ugly heads during the electioneering process.

Recently, there was another shooting incident that claimed the life of a police officer. The victims were supporters of Mr. Philip Shuaibu, the state’s impeached deputy governor who was reinstated by the Federal High Court last week, and some opposition members who tried to attack Mr. Shuaibu and Monday Okpebholo, the All Progressive Congress candidate, during their convoy’s return to the state.

These incidents and other reported cases have created tension in the state as election day draws closer. Insecurity challenges may undermine the smooth process of the election and ultimately the credibility of the poll. It could also trigger low participation in the election.

Political Permutations of the PDP and APC
The trajectory of political activities in Edo State has been a cynosure, particularly with the ongoing muscle flexing and territorial marking between the Peoples Democratic Party, the All Progressives Congress, and the Labour Party. The PDP is the incumbent in the state and it is being controlled by Godwin Obaseki, the Governor. He used to be in the APC before the fallout between him and his predecessor, Comrade Adams Oshiomole. He contested and won election into the office of Governor in his first term on that platform

He turned the tide on his predecessor to emerge as governor for a second term on the platform of the PDP four years later. The fallout between them could not be separated from the accusation of godfatherism, among other things, by Obaseki against Oshiomole, which led to his defection. There has been no love lost between the duo.

As Obaseki leaves office, he desires to have his candidate, Asue Ighodalo elected as the next governor, while the APC is fielding Monday Okpebholo, who was not initially Oshiomole’s preferred candidate. The APC wants to reclaim Edo State because of the politics of 2027. It is evident that both the APC and PDP are interested in getting their candidates to the coveted seat in the poll. They will therefore deploy all the arsenals at their disposal to have an edge.

Labour Party and Obidient Factor
The Labour Party, as a third force in the poll, is fielding the former President of the Nigerian Bar Association, Olumide Akpata, to go head-to-head with the PDP and APC candidates in the poll. The party is counting on the popularity it garnered from the general elections of 2023 when young Nigerians who called themselves Obidients enthusiastically embraced its candidate, Peter Obi. In the last presidential election, Obidients contributed immensely to Labour’s victory in Edo State. By aligning with the Obidients and taking advantage of the rifts within the major parties, Olumide Akpata, the underdog might benefit from the even power-showing of the PDP and the APC.

However, some members of the Edo Obidient Movement have dissociated themselves from the Labour Party (LP) and its candidate, Olumide Akpata. Their grouse was about the party’s performance and leadership tussle in the party, they posit that their previous support was limited to Mr Peter Obi only and not to the LP as a political entity. It is yet unclear whether the party will find its structure to create an upset in the poll.

Mr Olumide Akpata is a candidate from Edo South as against his other two top contenders who are from Edo Central. His Benin roots could be of advantage when the chips are down against his opponents who are from other ethnic stock in the State.

Regionalism/ Zoning
Another factor that may shape the outcome of the Edo election is zoning and regionalism among the three senatorial districts in the state. Edo State has three senatorial districts, namely Edo Central, North and South. There has been an unwritten agreement in the state that it is the turn of Edo Central to produce the next governor since the other two have produced a sitting governor in recent times.

Apart from the senatorial districts, the state has three major ethnic groups, the Binis, Esan, and Afemais. Just like the senatorial district, the two ethnic groups have produced more persons as governor than the Esan group. While Bini falls into Edo South, a senatorial district that produced Godwin Obaseki, Afemai is in Edo North, a home for Adams Oshiomole, and the blank space remains for Esan, which is in Edo Central.

To close the gap, both the PDP and the APC fielded Esan candidates, Asue Ighodalo and Monday Okpeholo, the district’s current senator. Nevertheless, the Labour Party chose a candidate to lay the groundwork who was not from the Esan or Edo central senatorial districts. Though some commentators have pointed out, Edo South, the largest district in the state with 58% of voters, is where Labour Party member Olumide Akpata was born.

The Philips Shuaibu Factor
The recent switching of camp by the impeached deputy governor of Edo State, Philips Shaibu is another factor that could play a role in shaping the outcome of the poll. Philips Shuaibu was reinstated by the federal high court last week Wednesday after he was impeached by the state house of assembly after a headlong battle between him and Obaseki.

Up until the beginning of the political logjam between the duo, Obaseki and Shaibu were close allies, on several occasions, the latter has heaped praises on his principal at every chance. But their bromance ended when the issue of who succeeded Obaseki came up and Shaibu made his intention known to Obaseki. Obaseki, who had another candidate, chose the head of his economic team, Asue Ighodalo, as a worthy person to succeed him, a development that did not sit well with Shaibu. Following a protracted conflict with his principal, state lawmakers impeached Mr. Shaibu.

Since his return to the state, Mr. Shaibu has announced his switch from the PDP to the APC and has been seen socialising with key APC figures. With his swinging from one party to another, one does not know if the embattled deputy governor still has the influence to cause upset for the PDP in the coming election. Though an acclaimed grassroots politician his weight and impact will be tested in the coming election

Where Would the Pendulum Swing?
Politically, it is still morning. Twenty-four hours is a long time in politics. There are still several hurdles to cross for all the major parties and their candidates. There will still be carpet-crossing and betrayals. There could still be slips here and there which may affect the momentum of the candidates. More importantly, there would still be endorsements, especially from the royal palaces, the journey is therefore still far.