With less than a month to the next off –cycle election in Ekiti state, where the successor to Dr. Kayode Fayemi will be elected by the people in an epic governorship election, the contest has crystallized as a three-horse race between the APC, PDP and the SDP.

Though 14 political parties out of 18 registered parties in the country will be participating, all indications point to a three-horse race between Dr. Bidun Oyebanji of the APC, Bisi Kolawole of the PDP and Segun Oni of the SDP. SDP comes into the race as the third political force; power had always rotated between the PDP and APC in Ekiti state since the return to democratic rule in 1999.

The SDP is cruising on the back of former Governor Segun Oni who is its governorship candidate. Oni, an engineer was the governor of the state between 2007 and 2011 before the Court of Appeal voided his election, three and half years after being sworn in. A casual opinion poll shows that Governor Oni would put up a good showing in the coming election.

Each of the three parties has its job well cut out. There are unique selling points as well as legions of disadvantages. The APC being the incumbent party in power is the most exposed as it will be assessed from its present performance as well as shortcomings. The PDP comes next because it has occupied the government house under two previous administrations. While the SDP may be a new comer to slug it it out with the other two, it comes on the reputation and pedigree of former Governor Segun Oni whose tenure as governor is referenced for good governance.

Both the PDP and the SDP are banking on the perceived shortcomings of the APC being the party in government at the state level. At the same time, they are afraid that the APC could deploy power of its incumbency in the state and at federal level to outmaneuver them and swing the election in its favour.

Both the PDP and APC are beleaguered and plagued by the fall-outs from their governorship primary elections which led to the exit of some of their key members. Former Governor Segun Oni participated in the PDP primary election and when he was defeated opted to defect to the SDP. He had some members of the PDP going out of the Party with him.

The SDP has been the biggest beneficiary of the fall-out from the primary elections in the PDP and it is feared that the party will diminish the voting strength of the PDP in Ekiti state. Though, the APC had some negative fall-outs from its primary elections too, it has been able to weather the storm more tenaciously than the PDP.

In another breath, the governorship election is being perceived as a cold war of leaders. While Dr. Biodun Oyebamiji is seen as a protégé of Governor Kayode Fayemi; Bisi Kolawole is seen as the alter ego of former Governor Ayo Fayose. Both of them are leading the campaigns of their political soulmates to the extent that Governor Fayemi is rarely visible on the field campaigning for his presidential ambition for which he obtained N100 million expression of interest and nomination forms.

The outcome of the Ekiti governorship election would depend largely on how INEC and security agencies are able to minimize vote buying; and the deployment of electronic transmission of election equipment to tackle rigging and falsification of results at the collation centres. The 2018 governorship election was plagued by a lot of vote buying otherwise known as “Dibo ko Sebe” translated as vote and collect money for a pot of soup.

In terms of funding for the campaigns and resources to mobilise supporters to their voting units, it would appear the APC is primed to do far better than other parties. The PDP candidate is banking on the street popularity of former Governor Ayo Fayose who connects well with the grassroots. The SDP candidate banks more on his pedigree and reputation with Ekiti people than on his financial muzzle.