Whether in peace or war, Niger Republic remains a big threat to Nigeria. The country shares land border with seven states in Northern Nigeria. The states are Borno, Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara States. It is a notorious fact that most of the communities bordering Nigeria and Niger are tormented by all kinds of deadly terrorist groups whose operation bases reside in the Niger Republic.

A lot of Nigeriens have become Nigerians effortlessly by simply walking across our porous borders and settling down wherever they choose to. A lot of families in the Northern part of Nigeria have their kith and kin in Niger republic. So, going to a kinetic war with Nigeria Republic would be extremely costly with potentials for heightening our internal security situation through sabotage both in the military and among the civilians.

Abdourahamane Tiani Niger’s Coup Leader

The deadline from ECOWAS to the military junta led by General Abdourahamane Tiani to hand over power to the overthrown President Bazoum sounds theoretically good and demonstrates the regional body’s commitment to constitutional government. But, in practice this may be far-fetched. ECOWAS proposed military action is tantamount to staging a counter coup to upstage a coup. A coup is defined as an illegal and overt attempt by the military or other government elites to unseat the incumbent leader.

Ousted President Bazooum

The Economic Community of West African States imposed sanctions on Niger and issued a warning of the potential use of force on the junta after a one-week ultimatum to restore President Mohamed Bazoum. The incumbent leader in Niger Republic and the Head of the military junta – appears to be more versed in act of politics than in military tactics that are yet to be tested. He gave continually deteriorating security situation as a major reason for the putsch. But there’s a groundswell of support for his government internally and it also enjoys support from both West Africa and beyond. There are conspiracy theories that this may be Nigeria’s nemesis and a real threat to the Tinubu’s government that is new and still seeking legitimacy in the electoral court.

It’s not an enviable time to head the ECOWAS because the handling of the situation in Niger Republic would either weaken or strengthen the regional group. ECOWAS does not have the structure and wherewithal to prosecute a war with one of its member-state. ECOWAS decision to oust the Niger military junta using force seems lacking in diplomatic strategy and insensitive to its regional environment. That reality reared its head vividly at the ECOWAS Defence Chiefs meeting in Nigeria on Tuesday. Attended by the Chiefs of Defence Staff of Nigeria, Ghana, the Gambia, Togo, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d Ivoire, Cape Verde, Senegal, Benin Republic, Guinea Bissau but bereft of representatives from Niger, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea-Bissau who were conspicuously absent. ECOWAS is already divided down the line.

The seven-day ultimatum given the military junta to return President Bazoum to power and quit power expires this weekend. Already, military chiefs are exploring strategies for a military option to oust the military junta. Conversely, there are ongoing demonstrations in Niger supporting the military government and mocking ECOWAS and Nigerian President Tinubu. It’s been argued that ECOWAS’s weak response to recent coup ‘d’etats in the region may have paved the way for what is now a belt of dictatorships that stretches all the way from Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali and now Niger. The plotters have gained the perception that ECOWAS is weak and could be challenged without consequences.

But there’s always a patriot rise by citizens of any country when the country is about to be ridiculed and used as a guinea pig for some kind of experiment. The celebration of Niger Republic’s Independence Day on Thursday showed a massive support enjoyed by the military regime in Niamey, the Nigerien capital. The widespread support seems far from being stimulated. The military junta seems to enjoy a considerable backing of the Nigerien people.

The latest coup in Niger has fundamentally changed the region and a new cold war between democratic states and military juntas has emerged, with the latter directly challenging the regional bloc. They have come together to audaciously declare that an ECOWAS attack on Niger is an attack on Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso, requiring a full retaliatory response. In order words, this could lead to a war, not only with Niger Republic. Nigeria is definitely at a crossroads.

President Tinubu and ECOWAS are no doubt under immense pressure. Pressure to avoid a break out of war. The Armed Forces in Nigeria already thinned-out by domestic operations are being drafted to the Northern part of the country ostensibly for a likely military action. A leaked Nigerian military memo dated 01/08/23 shows the Nigerian military are told to prepare to proceed to a Northern State and also enforce a no-fly zone in Niger Republic. The Nigerian military is currently being mobilised to Sokoto in the northwest, ahead of the launch an air offensive on Niger? Nigeria has cut electricity supply from her national grid to Niger Republic.

Even at that, constitutional issues are rearing their heads in whisperings: Does the President have the sole authority to embark on this war without the consent of the National Assembly? Who appropriates funds for this military exercised that was never budgeted for? Constitutionally, one of the key duties of the President is the defence of the country and its territorial integrity. That resolved: Does Nigeria have the means or financial resources to enforce a no-fly zone in Niger Republic and precipitate war with her neighbour?

Perhaps to avoid a national disgrace and commence a war that will take long to end, The ECOWAS decided to raise a delegation to meet the coup leaders for talks; an action that should have preceded the threat of a military action. According to reports, a delegation from West African regional bloc ECOWAS arrived in Niger on Thursday for talks with coup leaders. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, the bloc’s chairman, urged representatives to do “whatever it takes to ensure a conclusive and amicable resolution of the situation in Niger”.

This diplomatic shuttle is coming less than 48 hours into ECOWAS deadline reached at the end of the extraordinary summit last weekend in Abuja. The delegation, is headed by former Nigerian Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar (Rtd), left for Niamey on Thursday following a briefing by President Tinubu at the State House in Abuja.

The former Nigerian Head of State is joined in the delegation by the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III and the President of the ECOWAS Commission, H.E. Omar Alieu Touray. The President has also sent a separate delegation led by Ambassador Babagana Kingibe to engage with the leaders of Libya and Algeria on the Niger crisis.

Briefing the two delegations, President Tinubu charged them to engage all stakeholders robustly with a view to doing whatever it takes to ensure a conclusive and amicable resolution of the situation in Niger for the purposes of African peace and development rather than a move to adopt the geopolitical positions of other nations.

“We don’t want to hold brief for anybody. Our concern is democracy and the peace of the region,” the President said. Speaking after the meeting, General Abdulsalami Abubakar (Rtd) said the delegation would meet the coup leaders in Niger to present the demands of the ECOWAS leadership.

These are face saving acts by Nigeria’s President Tinubu, and a smart escape from a catastrophic humiliation in Niger Republic, the type the United States of America suffered in Vietnam over the Gulf of Tonkin invasion. The US essentially lost the Vietnam war because their opponent in the war conquered the side supported by the Americans. Yet, this war lasted 7 years 1965 to 1972.

So, why did the ECOWAS, albeit Nigeria put the cart before the horse? Another gaffe of “subsidy is gone” that has triggered crises of different dimensions in Nigeria? The diplomatic shuttles being undertaken now, were required before the threat of military action. ECOWAS seems to have forgotten that the former President of Niger Mohammed Bazoun is still in the custody of the military junta. His life is at stake as the junta could decide to waste him and those in his cabinet and frustrate bringing to fruition, ECOWAS resolution that seeks to return him to power. What may be a possible way out right now, is for ECOWAS to negotiate a restoration of democracy in the country within the shortest possible time; contingent upon an assurance of amnesty for all those involved in the coup plot. That will also save the ECOWAS from an imminent disintegration.