Public perception of the All Progressives Congress (APC) drastically nosedived shortly after President Bola Tinubu’s “subsidy is gone” statement in his inaugural address on May 29, 2023. Nigerians experienced excruciating hardships triggered by that statement. Prices of goods rose steeply when fuel prices immediately increased from N200 per litre to more than N600 per litre. The distortions created are yet to abate.

By May 29, the APC will have cumulatively spent a decade in power. But many of the factors and scenarios that existed before it came to power are still present, and some have worsened. Some Nigerians now argue that the PDP’s 16 years were better than the APC’s years. There is hunger and anger in the land. Many Nigerians have become disillusioned by what is happening in their country. The ills of the PDP years, which Buhari’s eight years could not salvage, have returned to the polity in higher dimensions. The worst culprit is insecurity. Under the APC rule, banditry and terrorism have claimed more lives than they did under the PDP. A larger number of territories across various states are now under the control of terrorist groups. The population of terrorist groups has also increased.

Without a doubt, these happenings have made the APC brand unpopular with the masses across Nigeria. People argue that the leadership lacks compassion, imposing hardship and impoverishing Nigerians through its reform agenda. Therefore, it is counterintuitive that a political party without mass appeal could be gaining more followers through high-calibre defections from opposition parties. The question is, why would a party unpopular with the masses be attracting more members rather than losing supporters?

The EFCC Factor
A few factors and examples could answer this poser. The notion that the EFCC has evolved into a tool for coercing, intimidating, and blackmailing opposition politicians with hidden agendas to support the incumbent’s election bid is no longer mere speculation. That is also not strange to the polity. The recent defections in Delta State, where Dr Ifeanyi Okowa, the immediate past governor, and his protégé, the incumbent Sheriff Oborewori, and his deputy, Monday Onyeme, decamped with the entire PDP structure to the APC, epitomise this. Dr Okowa and some of the decampees are being investigated over the misappropriation of ₦1.3 trillion in funds belonging to Delta State.

Following the Delta State mass defection, it is anticipated that the Akwa Ibom governor, Pastor Umoh, may follow soon because his former boss, the former governor Udom Emmanuel, is in a similar situation to Okowa. The EFCC is investigating multiple cases worth billions of Naira. The governor has united members of his PDP and the APC and has promised to deliver the state to Tinubu and the APC in the presidential election while he retains his position at the state level. What a smart survival strategy.

The INEC Factor
Tinubu’s ultimate aim in capturing most of the South-South states is to create an impression that portrays the APC as having an overwhelming majority of states in Nigeria. The APC could use these statistics for majority states in Nigeria to persuade the INEC to declare election results that align with its agenda.

The fact that the Commission’s Chairman and many of its commissioners will be leaving by December 2025 eases the INEC situation. The move gives the Tinubu administration the privilege to nominate their replacement, and it is likely that the government will appoint individuals sympathetic to its cause. It is not in doubt that incumbents often use government institutions to retain power. The Tinubu administration has extended the tenure of the Inspector General of Police. The police and INEC collaborate on election duties.

The Rebranding of the APC
Branding is the process of creating a distinct identity for a business or product in the target audience’s minds, differentiating it from competitors and establishing a memorable and positive perception. Contrary to reality, people may perceive defections as a strategic way to reposition and rebrand the APC in their minds and hearts.

The new APC branding concept is also woven around the invincibility of President Bola Tinubu, whose image in politics has been intentionally created as a master strategist with a public persona that portrays him as calculative and larger than life. They project him as possessing exceptional competencies in the field of politics. He reportedly won his 2023 election against the wishes of the incumbent President and the Central Bank of Nigeria. Some people believe it will be difficult to defeat someone who now controls all the levers of power and coercion — the security agencies.

Defections and Bandwagon Effect
The defections could have a bandwagon effect on the permutations and calculations for the 2027 general elections. Though it is yet to be seen how many people the defectors would carry along or whether the bandwagon effect could impact voting, it would no doubt impact some voters’ opinions and preferences. It may also lead to voter apathy, as voters may be disillusioned by the expected results. The aim of the preference change is for the voter to end up picking the “winner’s side” in the end.

Pro-Democratic Activists Allege Momentum for a One-Party State 

At the weekend, seventeen pro-democracy and human rights activists alleged that President Tinubu and the ruling APC are deliberately undermining democracy and setting the stage for a one-party system. In a statement titled ‘Defending Democracy: A Call to Resist the March Toward a One-Party State in Nigeria’, they expressed concern at a “calculated and systematic effort by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to dismantle the democratic foundations of our republic.”

They alleged that the current administration employs underhanded tactics to weaken opposition parties. They accused the administration of using bribery, blackmail, and coercion to weaken opposition parties, claiming that political figures are defecting to the ruling party not out of conviction but out of fear and pressure.

“We are witnessing a disturbing trend where opposition figures are being induced to defect to the ruling party, not out of conviction, but out of fear and pressure, through bribery, blackmail, and coercion,” the statement asserted.

“A democracy without opposition is not a democracy,” cautioning against the “weaponisation of state institutions for partisan gain,” which they believe “corrodes public trust and undermines the integrity of our democracy.” 

Democracy is Strong and Alive in Nigeria, says the Presidency.

In a swift response, the government of President Tinubu rejected the claims of any move towards a one-party state. A statement by Mr Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, said, “We have read the alarming claims of disgruntled opposition figures, some partisan human rights crusaders and emergency defenders of democracy over recent defections of key members of opposition parties into the governing All Progressives Congress.

“The seismic shift caused by Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Eno’s open declaration of support for President Bola Tinubu, the defection of Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, the former vice presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party in the last election, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, and the principal political actors in Delta and Rivers States certainly threw the opposition and their sympathisers into disarray.

“While the opposition elements are understandably heartbroken over the failure of their fabled grand coalition to gain traction, we find it disturbing that they resorted to peddling false allegations of promoting a one-party state against President Bola Tinubu, who is working very hard to reverse decades of economic mismanagement in our country.

“Contrary to the false claims in the propaganda materials in circulation across mainstream and social media, democracy is not under any threat in Nigeria. Accusations that the administration is moving towards authoritarianism are baseless and exaggerated.

“We must add that no policy, official action, or directive from the presidency seeks to ‘dismantle democracy’ or ‘weaken opposition or create a one-party state.” Accusations of bribery, blackmail, and weaponising state institutions only exist in the idle minds of politicians and their agents, who have failed in their assigned roles as opponents and are fishing for scapegoats.

“The opposition cannot blame President Tinubu and the governing APC for their poor organisation, indiscipline, and gross incompetence in managing their affairs. It is certainly not part of President Tinubu’s job to organise or strengthen opposition parties.”

“Politicians changing party affiliation is not new or peculiar to Nigeria. In more advanced democracies, there are already examples of notable politicians, statesmen, and women who changed their parties.

“President Tinubu and the National Working Committee of the APC, under the leadership of Dr Abdullahi Ganduje, deserve commendation for making the ruling party viable and attractive to all Nigerians willing to participate in the democratic process.

“President Tinubu is an avowed democrat and a firm believer in multiparty democracy. His political activism and democratic credentials for galvanising and strengthening opposition platforms as a force that defeated a sitting president and the then-ruling party attest to his credibility as a tested defender of multiparty democracy.

“We urge all Nigerians to join hands with the administration in protecting our democracy by respecting our people’s choices and giving alarmists, who draw their narratives from the pool of fiction, a wide berth,” the statement said.