This is the second part of the NDR report on key developments in democracy and governance in 2025. Political Realignments Ahead of 2027: Significant Defection to APC With the 2027 general elections drawing near, Nigeria’s political scene is now characterised by intense campaigning and shifting alliances. In 2025, a significant number of members from opposition
This is the second part of the NDR report on key developments in democracy and governance in 2025.
Political Realignments Ahead of 2027: Significant Defection to APC
With the 2027 general elections drawing near, Nigeria’s political scene is now characterised by intense campaigning and shifting alliances. In 2025, a significant number of members from opposition parties defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), highlighting just how imminent the next round of elections is.
Several governors, federal and state lawmakers, and opposition political figures have joined the APC, thereby changing the political dynamics and prompting concerns about multiparty democracy. At least 5 governors, 20 federal legislators, and numerous state officials have defected to the ruling party.
The governors who announced their defections are Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta, Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom, Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers, Peter Mbah of Enugu, and Douye Diri of Bayelsa.
Numerous political analysts have presented arguments both in favour of and against the recent defections. Proponents contend that these movements represent a pragmatic adjustment by politicians seeking to maintain relevance within the prevailing political framework. They point to internal challenges within opposition parties, such as leadership disputes and insufficient organisational cohesion, as significant factors motivating support for the ruling party. Additionally, some individuals who have defected view alignment with the APC as a strategic means to secure federal support and resources for their constituencies in anticipation of upcoming electoral cycles.
Critics contend that the recent wave of defections reflects underlying democratic challenges, arguing that these developments may undermine political pluralism and diminish effective checks on executive authority, potentially leading to a de facto one-party state.
Lawmakers Approve, and President Tinubu Signs the Tax Reform Bills
The ratification and presidential approval of Nigeria’s Tax Reform Bill represent a significant advancement in the nation’s governance and economic policy. After a complex legislative process, the tax reform bills reached their conclusion in June 2025, when President Bola Tinubu formally signed the legislation, initiating comprehensive reforms to Nigeria’s tax system.
After extensive debate in the National Assembly, four bills were passed: the Nigeria Tax Bill 2024 to overhaul taxation policy; the Tax Administration Bill to clarify tax regulations and disputes; the Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Bill to replace the current revenue authority; and the Joint Revenue Board Establishment Bill to set up a tax tribunal and ombudsman. These measures nearly divided the country’s southern and northern regions.
The Nigerian government will fully implement this in January 2026.
Amupitan Appointed INEC Chairman After Mahmood Yakubu’s Tenure Ends
Professor Amupitan’s appointment as INEC Chairman in 2025 marked a significant governance change in Nigeria, ending Professor Mahmood Yakubu’s decade-long tenure that began in 2015.
Amupitan, a senior lawyer in the country, was appointed during a period of heightened political activity preceding the 2027 general elections. The leadership transition at the nation’s electoral commission soon became a focal point for national discussions concerning electoral credibility, institutional independence, and public confidence in democracy.
Many Nigerians and opposition parties questioned his appointment, suspecting ties to the current administration and partisanship. The lawyer denied any association with the APC and pledged to enforce the electoral law impartially.
CSOs, political parties, and other stakeholders called for stricter safeguards and more transparency in INEC leadership appointments due to concerns about trust in democratic institutions.
Claims of Military Coup and Official Denial
Another notable event in 2025 was the reported attempt at a military coup targeting President Bola Tinubu’s administration. Media sources indicated that the alleged plot involved high-ranking members of the administration, resulting in arrests and subsequent changes within the military command structure.
Nevertheless, the military refuted claims of a coup, asserting that the detentions were conducted for disciplinary reasons and that such reports were inaccurate. The reported coup attempt sparked varied responses among Nigerians, many of whom were concerned that the country might experience military intervention like that seen recently in nearby nations.
Trump Labels Nigeria ‘Country of Concern’ Amid Security Debate and U.S. Airstrikes
Another significant development related to the nation’s democracy and governance was the designation of Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” by the President of the United States of America. Donald Trump stated he was prepared to use military force against Islamist militants accused of committing Christian genocide.
The Nigerian government, however, dismissed characterising the country’s insecurity challenges as Christian genocide, stressing that terrorism, banditry, and other forms of violence impact all religious groups, including both Muslims and Christians. Some Nigerians criticised the U.S. for threatening their country’s sovereignty, while others viewed Trump’s threat of military action positively.
Amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the two nations, President Trump stated through his official Truth platform that the United States conducted airstrikes in Nigeria on Christmas night. The strikes targeted ISIS militants whom he accused of being responsible for attacks against Christians. He described the operation as decisive and indicated that additional actions could occur should the violence persist.
