Governorship Race 2026: Osun in the Eye of the Storm
The Osun governorship election has never been more fiercely contested. Although it is currently a three-horse race, it may narrow to two leading contenders by the August 15 election. The Accord...
The Osun governorship election has never been more fiercely contested. Although it is currently a three-horse race, it may narrow to two leading contenders by the August 15 election. The Accord Party’s incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, the APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji, and the ADC candidate Dr Najeem Salam are all determined to battle to the finish.
Negative campaigns, violence, defections, and endorsements have overshadowed the contest. For the average Osun voter, the election may appear to be little more than a power struggle between the Accord Party and the APC. Property has been destroyed wantonly, while human life has been increasingly devalued.
For the APC, this is a moment for payback. The party is determined to respond in kind to the Adeleke team over what it sees as the wrongs of the 2022 governorship election, when it says about 25 of its members were killed and it lost the governorship. APC leaders also allege that the federal APC government at the time formed an improper alliance with the then-PDP candidate, Ademola Adeleke, to weaken Tinubu’s presidential campaign. They now hope to turn those perceived setbacks into an advantage in the 2026 contest.
In politics, past wrongs are rarely forgotten. The Adeleke camp understands this and has repeatedly blamed Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola for its troubles in the race. Oyetola was the incumbent governor defeated by Ademola Adeleke, and critics saw him as too weak to use either state power or the APC-led federal government’s influence to stop Adeleke. Now Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, the former governor has much to prove in this contest.
The Significance of Victory in Osun to both Accord and APC
To the average Osun voter, the deeper stakes in the coming governorship election may not be immediately clear. Many may see only a power struggle, but victory for either the Accord Party or the APC carries broader significance. Beyond the local factors already discussed, an APC win would strengthen President Bola Tinubu’s South-West base ahead of the 2027 presidential election. With Oyo State uncertain and Seyi Makinde on the ballot, the APC would consider it risky to leave Osun in the hands of another opposition party, especially after Tinubu lost the state to Atiku Abubakar in the 2023 presidential election.
Basking in its victory in the Ekiti governorship election, the APC would want to continue its winning streak and ride on that momentum into the 2027 general elections. With about 30 Governors in its kitty, the Party would like to add to its number with Osun. Osun State is also reputed to be President Tinubu’s ancestral home.
For Governor Ademola Adeleke, a second-term victory would firmly establish his family as a political dynasty in the state, giving them greater influence over future governorship races and other contests involving candidates they support. His father was a Senator in the Second Republic, while his elder brother, Isiaka, became the state’s first elected governor after Osun was created in 1991 and later served as a Senator. Indeed, Isiaka’s death drew Ademola into politics, leading him to succeed his brother in the Senate.
The stakes are too high, and that is why Osun State is in the eye of the storm, with the campaigns dominated by propaganda and social media wars, exaggerating and celebrating defections at every campaign rally rather than speaking to the manifestos of their candidates. The separating lines between the two leading parties are blurred, and it appears egos rather than performance or pedigree may be at war.
The Significance for INEC
For Professor Joash Amupitan, who led INEC, Osun is the real test for its independence. Nigerians would like to see how independent it would be in this race. Nigerians want to see a free and fair election which could rekindle hope and trust in its electoral management role. Notably, this is the first competitive election under Professor Amupitan.
His first election in charge was the Anambra governorship poll, held just weeks after his appointment. That contest was largely uneventful, as several candidates stepped down for incumbent Governor Chukwuma Soludo, who had aligned with the APC-led federal government. Ekiti followed, but it was effectively a coronation for Governor Abiodun Oyebanji, with the main opposition, the PDP, weakened by internal crisis. Osun therefore presents the electoral umpire’s first real test.
Osun will also be the second off-cycle election conducted under the 2026 Electoral Act. The first, in Ekiti, experienced some BVAS glitches, and the Osun mock election had similar issues, which INEC resolved within an hour. With further modifications and enhancements, the BVAS machines are expected to perform optimally on Saturday. Given the volatility of the Osun contest, INEC cannot afford any lapses in its processes.
On the Political Turf
Political activity remains intense. The candidates’ performances at the Arise News Town Hall continue to drive debate on social media, with supporters scrutinising and fact-checking opponents’ remarks. On a general note, the three leading candidates gave a good account of themselves.
Meanwhile, the ADC is not relenting but pushing for a fight. It held its mega rally at the popular Freedom Park in Osogbo on Monday. It was a crowd-puller, which was attended by ADC juggernauts, including former vice president Atiku Abubakar and former Senate president David Mark. The ADC gubernatorial candidate assured the party’s supporters that he was winning the contest.
The Accord Party postponed its final major campaign rally after moving the venue from Osogbo to Ede, while the APC is set to hold a mega rally expected to draw party leaders and several governors.
The parties are fine-tuning their final strategies to outmanoeuvre their opponents amid allegations of intimidation and vote trading. Open campaigns will end after tomorrow. All eyes are on Osun to see whether Saturday’s election will be peaceful and credible, though few are confident it will be free of violence.
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