Fact Check: That 70% of Osun State’s Population Is Youth Is Misleading

By Raji Rasaki

Claim: Hon. Oralusi Babatunde Hareter of the APC claimed that 70% of Osun State’s population falls within the youth age bracket.

Verdict: False.
Available data and official population projections show that the youth aged 15-39 constitute about 43% of Osun State’s population, not 70%.

Background

With the 2026 governorship election approaching in Osun State, political activities are intensifying, and aspirant declarations are steadily increasing. Among those eyeing the governorship ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is Oralusi Babatunde Hareter, who recently appeared on TVC Breakfast programme to outline his vision and political strategy.

During the interview, Oralusi emphasised the importance of youth engagement in determining the outcome of the next election. He claimed that “Osun has about 70% youth population,” arguing that the state’s young and educated citizens would play a decisive role in the polls.

The assertion that electoral outcomes in Osun could be significantly influenced by a predominant youth demographic led NDRFactCheck to conduct an evaluation of its validity.

Verification

To verify, NDRFactCheck referred to the officially recognised definition of “youth” in Nigeria:

One,  the African Youth Charter (2006) defines youths as individuals aged 15–35 years.

Two, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its 2022 Demographic Statistics Bulletin defines youths as those aged 15–39 years.

Three, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), as referenced by  YIAGA Africa (2023), also adopted the 18–35 years range for political and electoral classification.
Based on these, the acceptable youth range for this analysis is taken as 15–39 years.

Data Analysis

The Osun State Development Plan (2018–2028) relied on the 2006 National Population Census, which puts the state’s population at 3,416,959, with those aged 29 and below representing 67.5%. However, this figure includes children and adolescents, not just youths as defined by the national standard.

More recent data from the Osun State Development Plan (2023–2050) projects the 2022 population at 5,638,559, with the following age distribution:

• Ages 0–9 years: 25%
• Ages 10–19 years: 24%
• Ages 20–29 years: 19%
• Ages 30–39 years: 12%

To estimate the actual youth population (ages 15–39 years):

• Half of the 10–19 years group (representing 15–19 years) → 12%
• Full 20–29 years group → 19%
• Full 30–39 years group → 12%

Total = 12% + 19% + 12% = 43%

Thus, the youth aged 15–39 constitute approximately 43% of Osun State’s population — far below the claimed 70%.

Conclusion: While Osun State indeed has a youthful population, the claim that 70% of its residents are youth is incorrect.

The most reliable data available, that is from the Osun State Development Plan (2023–2050), shows that youths (ages 15–39) make up about 43% of the population.

Therefore, the statement by Oralusi Babatunde Hareter on TVC’s Breakfast programme is false and misleading.

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