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On Friday, December 9, 2022, the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Ogun State, Ladi Adebutu, flagged off his campaign in Abeokuta, the state capital.

This is coming at exactly 90 days to the 2023 Governorship and States Houses of Assembly elections, according to the timetable and schedule of activities released by the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC).

In his engagement with his supporters, the governorship candidate unveiled his seven-point agenda which include security, local government autonomy, rural development, healthcare, education, agricultural development and youths development.

To achieve these, he needs to campaign for votes and dislodge the incumbent, Governor Dapo Abiodun in the coming elections.

During the flag-off campaign, he told members of his party, his supporters and the people of the state to reject the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and its candidates at the poll, reeling out a number of claims about the incumbent Dapo Abiodun’s administration in the state.

These claims revolved around Governor Dapo Abiodun’s handling of the domestic debts, fiscal performance, and internally generated revenue (IGR).

The report of the campaign flag-off where these claims were made has been published in the mainstream media here , here and an online newspaper here.

How true are these claims? The public need to know. Hence, we verified them.

Verification

Claim 1. That Governor Dapo Abiodun’s administration has increased the domestic debt of the state by 55.4 percent within one year.

Our search took us to reports released by the Debt Management Office (DMO). According to these reports, Ogun state domestic debt profile as at December 31 2020 was 153.5bn. It stood at 232.6bn as at December 31, 2021, and 241.8bn as at September 30, 2022.

These statistics show that there was a total amount of N86.21bn, representing 55.4 percent domestic debt increase in two years, that is, between 2020 and 2022,

Again, according to BudgIT, in its 2022 state-of-states report, Ogun State remains one of the four states in Nigeria with a total growing debt stock of more than 40% from 2020 and number 4 of the 5 most indebted states.

Verdict: True. Ogun debt increased by N86.21bn (55.4%)

Claim 2: That the increase occurred within a year, that is between 2021 and 2022.

Verification

As revealed by the DMO, the state domestic debt grew from 153.5bn in 2020 to 241.7bn 2022, representing a 55.4% increase in two years.

Verdict: Incorrect. The 55.4% increase occurred over a period of two years, that is between 2020 and 2022

Claim 3: That the state dropped to the 19th position on the 2021 Fiscal Performance Ranking from the 3rd position in 2020.

Verification

According to the 2022 state-of-states report released by BudgIT,  Ogun State moved up 9 places in its fiscal performance ranking from 19th in 2020 to 10th in 2022 based on 2021 data.

Verdict: Misleading 

Claim 4: That there was a sharp decline in the IGR of the state by about 28.44 percent. In correct perspective, the IGR dropped with about N20.17bn within a period of 11 months.

Verification

According to BudgIT, in its 2021 state of states, the sharp decline in the IGR of the state occurred between 2019 and 2020 when the state’s earnings fell by 28.44% or N20.17bn from N70.92bn earned in 2019 to N50.75bn earned in 2020.

However, new statistics have since emerged in the 2021 IGR.

According to National Bureau of Statistics in its 2019-2021 reports, Ogun grew its IGR from N50.6bn in 2020 to N100.7bn in 2021, being only out-performed by Lagos State, (N753.3bn); (FCT N131.9bn) and Rivers State (N123.3bn).

Image: Courtesy of National Bureau of Statistics [2019-2021 reports]

Similarly, in its analysis of the 2021 report of states IGR by the NBS, Dataphyte noted that Ogun state became number two state after Sokoto State with the highest IGR growth rate year-on-year, having achieved a 99% growth rate.

Verdict: Misleading (New data has disproved this claim)

Claim 5: That the expenditure per capita of Ogun State was at N5,120 per citizen, which was lower than the National average of N8,129 spending per citizen on all the 36 states.

Verification:

2022 state of states report by BudgIT reveals that the capital expenditure per capital in Ogun state has increased from N5,120 in 2021 to N13,387 in 2022, representing 161.4% increase.

 Courtesy: BudgIT 2022 state of states report

Conclusion

From multiple sources such as the statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics, BudgIT, Dataphyte, and Debt Management Office, the PDP governorship candidate weaponised old statistics to mislead the public as new statistics have since disproved the claims he made.