Though there are forty-five candidates flying the flags of different political parties in the Saturday, November 16, governorship election in Bayelsa state, in truth, it is a two-horse race contest; between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). One,the incumbent at the state, the other controls power at the Federal level.

The two parties are at daggers drawn. And for real, political pundits are skeptical and hoping the election would not get violent at some point with physical daggers being employed freely in order for one to gain the upper hand. A lot, not the least ego, is also at stake. The Ijaws are warriors and their several years of battles and agitations over resource control had turned not a few into militants, activists and small warlords with control on territories.

Bayelsa state total registered voter population is 923,182 which is less than a million; it has eight local governments, 105 Registration Areas and 1,804 polling units. Not a large voting population you would say, yet so volatile. Bayelsa is the only state in the country that is homogeneously Ijaw.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has charged its Electoral Officers to shun all forms of pressure and do the right things according to the law governing the electoral process. Its Chairman Mahmood Yakubu said the Commission is committed to a free, fair and credible election. He urged the stakeholders to protect materials and staff of INEC before, during and after the election.

The Nigeria Police has proactively deployed 32,000 personnel ensure that violence is curtailed and law and order maintained. The IGP, Mohammed Adamu in a stern warning to a meeting of stakeholders asked trouble makers and election riggers to exit Bayelsa state immediately.”We are ready for the election and we will cover every nook and cranny of Bayelsa”

He said 32,000 personnel would be deployed for election duty in the state, “every polling unit will get the required number of personnel, while materials and officials would be protected”.

He warned all those who want to foment trouble or who have stock-piled arms for use during the election to have a re-think as the Police would make life difficult for them all. He said movement would be restricted and there is going to be nothing like VIP movement. “We will remain neutral and be very professional in discharging our duties”

The die is cast. The two parties are engaged in their campaign wrap up this week and it is not clear who may carry the day between the PDP whose candidate is Duoye Diri, a serving Senator of the federal republic of Nigeria and David Lyon who is the candidate of the APC and the underdog. Unlike, in the past when the PDP dominated the political landscape in Bayelsa, a large percentage is clamouring for a change and a realignment of the party in power at the state level with the party in power at the center.

To some analysts, the election is a referendum on the eight years of Governor Seriake Dickson’s administration and performance. This reasoning is made worse by a perception that Governor Dickson did not put into consideration the Jonathan’s factor. It is generally believed that former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan was not accorded his due respect in the selection of the PDP candidate as the outcome was predetermined by Governor Dickson’s Restoration Group which is very dominant in the PDP. Almost all the political office holders are members of the group from the Governor to the National Assembly members down to the Ward Councillors.

On paper, this should be a major strength and a winning machine for the PDP. Ironically, the PDP candidate’s albatross is the perception that he is an imposition by Governor Dickson. If the PDP is unfortunate and loses the November 16, election, this would be one the factors to be held responsible. Mr. Doife Waribi a taxi Driver in Yenagoa told the National Democratic Report that the people want a candidate not tied to Governor Dickson’s apron to emerge. According to him the PDP’s chances would have been brighter if a candidate not too attached to the governor was fielded.

Some analysts perceive the election as proxy-war between Governor Dickson and former Governor Timipriye Sylva and current Minister of State, Petroleum Resources. There is no love lost between the two. And, they both understand the game and the political terrain very well. It is an indirect battle of supremacy for the two of them who used to belong to the same political family in the past.

The choice of David Lyon on the other hand by the APC as its governorship candidate is said to be very strategic. He is a grassroots politician who is also very popular with many militant groups in the state. He is also said to be humane and kind and touching lives of many people in special ways. He has for long been investing in the people and different communities. His major drawback to point out is his limited education.

According to INEC documents on the candidate, his highest education attainment is the National Certificate on Education (NCE) compared to the PDP candidate who possesses a Bacherlor’s Degree in Education. The PDP candidate is also said to have wider political and administrative exposures.

There has been a lot of carpet-crossings from the two divides and a lot more people are still sitting on the fence. Where President Jonathan stands on the divide is still unclear. At the PDP campaign flag-off last week Wednesday in Yenagoa, the former President was conspicuously absent. He was said to have travelled to Niamey for an African Union assignment but those who should know argue that if the former President was on the same page in the choice of candidate, he would have made himself available for such an important and significant event. Others suggested that building himself into an international brand is more important to the former President at this time than any domestic politics.

For now, the serious issues of development, standard of living, education, healthcare are not on the front burners but the permutations are on who and which party controls where especially in the creeks which are very difficult terrains for both INEC and security agencies. How much time the politician has given to uplift the life of the ordinary Bayelsan on the street, may become evident in the outcome of the November 16, election, if true votes would count.