2027 Elections: Fuel Subsidy, Discounts, and the Cost-of-Living Debate

Campaigning for the 2027 presidential election, scheduled for January 16, 2026—97 days away—is intensifying, with fuel subsidies and the cost-of-living crisis dominating the debate. Tinubu’s economic reforms have increased living costs and pushed more Nigerians into poverty.

In response, opposition parties have sharply criticised the economic reforms and pledged to ease the cost of living. Atiku Abubakar, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, has promised to restore the fuel subsidy. Other presidential candidates, including Peter Obi, Adewole Adebayo, and Donald Duke, have made similar pledges to reduce fuel prices, using different models.

The Tinubu government responded on Thursday by announcing a 30-day fuel discount while avoiding describing it as a return to the subsidy. The government remains mindful of President Bola Tinubu’s May 29, 2023, declaration that “subsidy is gone.”

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy carefully framed the new fuel-discount policy: a 30-day reduction on petrol sold at Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited stations. Those stations are sparsely located across the country.

“We are offering a discount on petrol dispensed by NNPC Limited for the next 30 days in the first instance with priority for public transporters nationwide. So, it is not a subsidy; the government is just saying we sell to you at cost,” Oyedele said.

A State House statement was more evasive and shifted the proposed discount to a decision by the NNPC. The statement reads: “The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) agreed today to forgo its petrol retail profit margin and sell to Nigerians at cost to cushion the impact of global crude oil price shocks and volatility on vulnerable households.

“NNPC Retail, which already sells petrol at the lowest price in the market, will offer this new deal within the next 30 days. This means if NNPC’s landing cost is N1300, it will sell fuel to Nigerians, especially commercial vehicles, at the same price.

“The company’s discount gesture, backed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was among the raft of measures the Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, announced today.

“Oyedele said he hoped other marketers would take a cue from the NNPC, as the sharp rise in crude and petrol prices is not expected to last long.” The minister on his social media handle further explained:

“𝐀 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚 𝐒𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐲 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐚𝐦𝐞

Every marketer adds a margin to the price it pays for the fuel it sells. A margin discount means the retailer chooses to take a smaller margin, or no margin at all for a period, and passes the saving to the customer. The cost of the discount is borne by the retailer alone.

A subsidy is different. It is when the government pays part of the price the consumer would otherwise pay. That money comes from public revenue—funds that would otherwise go to salaries, schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. That is the regime this administration ended in 2023, and it is not coming back.”

Since Atiku Abubakar pledged to restore the fuel subsidy through domestic refining, the Tinubu administration has appeared unsettled and defensive. The President’s October 1 speech, which declared an end to reforms and the beginning of prosperity, has drawn scepticism and cynicism. Official data suggesting improvement has also been widely distrusted because it does not reflect people’s lived realities.

The government showed courage by adjusting its fuel subsidy removal policy and effectively restoring support in another form to ease Nigerians’ hardship. But is the discount sufficient? The campaign is increasingly centred on which candidate can make life more affordable.

Throwing the book back at the opposition, proposing alternatives to Tinubu’s reform agenda on fuel subsidy, Minister Oyedele said at her press conference, “We remain open to debate on ideas. But any credible proposal should answer three questions: What will it cost? How will it be funded sustainably? And what pump price will it deliver? We will engage in good faith with any proposal that shows its arithmetic.”

One fact is clear: many Nigerians agree that life has become unbearable. The candidate with the most credible plan to ease the cost-of-living crisis caused by fuel subsidy removal is likely to secure their support and votes.

The 2027 election will also serve as a verdict on the government and its policies. Amid shifting alliances and growing political uncertainty, many voters say they are ready to use their ballots to shape the country’s future. Whether to continue with the reform and removal of subsidy and any other convincing alternative. The debate has just started.

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