Claims: Mr. Sunday Dare, President Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, stated recently that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 40–45%, which he described as moderate compared to South Africa’s 70% and Ghana’s over 90%.

Verdicts: Incorrect and Misleading

There are three claims in his statement:

• The first claim is incorrect. Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 52.94% (using the country’s total public debt of ₦149.4trillion and annual GDP of ₦282.12 trillion), contrary to the 40% and 45% claimed.
• The second claim is also incorrect. South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 76.36% in 2024, and it’s projected to reach 4% for the 2025/26 fiscal year.
• The third claim is misleading. Ghana’s Debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 53.37% (when checked against its Public Debt of $59.4 billion and annual GDP of $111.33 billion), contrary to the “above 90%” claim. Ghana’s debt to GDP was at its peak of 93% in 2022, a figure which President Tinubu’s Aide cleverly referenced to rate Ghana in 2025.

The story in context:

Nigeria’s debt profile has become a cause of concern to all and sundry, particularly since President Tinubu assumed office in 2023. Not a few individuals have raised concerns here, here and here. One of the concerned citizens is Senator Dino Melaye, who represented Kogi West in the Senate in the 8th National Assembly.

Senator Dino Melaye, in an interview on Arise TV,  had vehemently criticised Mr. Tinubu’s administration over excessive borrowings, accusing the government of being reckless, wasteful and insensitive. While faulting Tinubu’s economic reforms, Melaye queried “why the government is seeking a $1.7 billion loan from the World Bank” following the recent Senate’s approval of about $21 billion in external borrowing.

President Tinubu has unimaginably surpassed his predecessor, President Buhari, in terms of borrowing. While Buhari left a total of N77 trillion, having borrowed N75.26 trillion in the whole of eight years in office, President Tinubu’s twenty months in office have seen Nigeria’s debt profile rise to N149.388 trillion in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.

The president has defended his loan borrowing, claiming they were being channeled to road infrastructure, technology and power development.

In response to Senator Melaye’s criticisms, an aide to the President, Mr. Sunday Dare, said that the surge in Nigeria’s debt profile under President Tinubu was not primarily driven by fresh borrowing but rather by the impact of naira depreciation on existing external obligations.

To amplify the efficacy of the President’s economic reforms and justify seeming adherence to existing thresholds for the incessant borrowings, Mr. Sunday Dare claims:

 “The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains within the range of 40 to 45 per cent…moderate when compared to South Africa’s 70 per cent and Ghana’s figure of over 90 per cent”.

Verification

To verify the veracity of the claim that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP is between 40 and 45%, NDR FactCheck scrutinised available public data. The Debt Management Office data show that Nigeria’s total public debt portfolio as at the end of the first quarter, 2025 was  N149,388,996.79 trillion.

To examine the public debt to GDP, NDR FactCheck estimated the World Bank’s data, which puts Nigeria’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at $187.76 billion (an equivalent of  ₦282.12trillion) using the Central Bank’s official exchange rate of N1,503 closing rate.

To calculate Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio using the figures highlighted above:

• Total Public Debt: ₦149.38899679 trillion
• Annual GDP: ₦282.12 trillion

Formula:

Debt-to-GDP Ratio=(₦149.38899679/₦282.12)×100 =0.5294100=52.94%.

Results show Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 52.94%, contrary to President Tinubu’s Special Adviser’s claim that the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio is between 40 and 45%.

This places Nigeria below the IMF’s 55% threshold for developing economies, but above the government’s preferred ceiling of 40–45%. It reflects growing fiscal pressure, especially considering currency depreciation and rising debt servicing costs.

Hence, the claim by the presidential aide is incorrect.

Chart prepared by NDR Factcheck. Data generated from DMO & World Bank

2. Is South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio 70 percent?

To verify this claim, we examined data from the World Bank, which puts South Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) at $400.26 billion as of December 2024.

In the same period, Statista reported that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 76.36%, reflecting mounting fiscal pressures. This translates to an estimated public debt of approximately $300.2 billion USD by year-end.

In May 2025, Moneyweb projected that South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio would rise further to 77.4% for the 2025/26 fiscal year, underscoring continued challenges in managing the country’s national debt.

The foregoing review shows that the President’s aide’s claim that South Africa’s debt to GDP was 70% is incorrect, as the figure hovers between 76.36% and 77%.

3. Is Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio above 90%?

NDR FactCheck observed that, in its September 9, 2025 edition, titled: Ghana’s debt deal stabilises economy, but not living costs,  Devex reports that Ghana’s debt as a share of gross domestic product as of June this year (2025) was 43.8%, down from 61.8%.

In addition, while the World Bank data shows Ghana’s annual GDP at 111.33 trillion, the Ghana Broadcasting Corporation report shows that Ghana’s “public debt stood at $59.4 billion in June 2025”.

To calculate Ghana’s Debt-to-GDP ratio, using the data provided above and the formula: Debt-to-GDP Ratio (Public Debt/GDP) ×100:

Given that:

• Public Debt = $59.4 billion
• GDP = $111.33 billion

Our checks show that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 53.37% contrary to Mr. Sunday Dare’s claim that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP is above 90%.

Chart prepared by NDR Factcheck. Data generated from MoneyWeb, World Bank, DMO, Devex, Statista, Finance Africa

Meanwhile, the Finance Africa report indicates that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP was at its peak of 93% in 2022, a figure that President Tinubu’s Aide used to rate Ghana.  This claim is, therefore, misleading.

Please follow and like us: