It was like a rampaging ringworm spreading on a bushy head; contagious and expanding like a wild bushfire during harmattan. For military historians, there was cause for concern because between August 2020 and now, coups have occurred in four West African countries – Burkina Faso since January 2022, Guinea Republic since September 2021, Mali since
It was like a rampaging ringworm spreading on a bushy head; contagious and expanding like a wild bushfire during harmattan. For military historians, there was cause for concern because between August 2020 and now, coups have occurred in four West African countries – Burkina Faso since January 2022, Guinea Republic since September 2021, Mali since August 2020, and Niger Republic on 26th July 2023. Attempts at forceful take-over in The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau were unsuccessful.
These developments have given democratically elected leaders sleepless nights, each looking back every minute to ensure his officers and men are still loyal to the republic.
On July 9 this year at the 63rd Ordinary session of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Guinea Bissau, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu who assumed leadership of the regional body cautioned that leaders of the West Africa sub-region must rise above coups d’état and threats to democracy.
While noting that insecurity and creeping terrorism are stunting the progress and development of the West African region President Tinubu said that the threat to peace in the region had reached alarming proportions with terrorism and an emerging pattern of military takeover that now demanded urgent and concerted actions.
President Tinubu emphasised the need to embrace kinetic and non-kinetic operations, including preventive diplomacy, to end regional insecurity pledging to harmonise all strategies and resources towards actualizing lasting peace in the region.
There have been fears that the ECOWAS standby force would use military force to liberate the detained political leaders in Niger Republic and install the democratically elected leaders after the seven days ultimatum issued by the regional body. The Nigerien Presidential Guard had detained President Bazoum and later declared General Abdourahamane Tchiani as the nation’s new leader.
General Tchiani, who has headed the Presidential Guard since 2011, said he was the new “President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland.”
But there had been instances when diplomatic manuovering had helped to restore an overthrown democratic government in Africa. On 16 July 2003, the military junta which seized power in the potentially oil-rich island state of Sao Tome and Principe after some days entered an agreement with international mediators on to allow the reinstatement of the elected government of President Fradique de Menezes.
President Menezes, who was visiting Nigeria at the time of the 16 July coup, flew back to the twin-island state, accompanied by the then Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, The military junta, led by Major Fernando Pereira, had agreed to the return and reinstatement of Menezes in return for an amnesty for the coup leaders and their civilian collaborators and the formation of a new government.
But the Nigerien coup leaders strongly suspect that ECOWAS was planning to use military might to flush them out of the presidential palace. The coup leaders and their collaborators in Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea said:” we want to once more remind ECOWAS or any other adventurer of our firm determination to defend our homeland”.
Nigeria and indeed ECOWAS have not decided on the path to take on the incident. A Senior official at the Nigeria’s premier military college, the National Defence College, Abuja on Wednesday said: “we are about to do a roundtable on this. I will extend invitation to you, sir”. This, indeed may be a test for the newly decorated service chiefs in the country.
In a more subtle manner, Nigeria where the ECOWAS Chairman comes from has quietly cut off Niger Republic from it’s energy grid. BBC News reported Niger’s electricity company Nigelec saying Nigeria cut its supply. Nigeria is a major supplier of electricity to Niger, its neighbour to the North.
ECOWAS on Sunday imposed sanctions including travel ban and a blockade on Niger pending the reinstatement of President Mohamed Bazoum who was ousted by the military on 26 July. It also threatened the use of force and summoned defense chiefs of the sub-region.
In addition, defense chiefs from ECOWAS states are on Wednesday meeting in Abuja. However, Mali, Niger, Guinea Bissau, Burkina Faso and Guinea were absent from the meeting. Also, a delegation from ECOWAS led by former military head of state, General Abdulsalami Abubakar is meeting in Niger on Wednesday to continue mediation.
France commenced evacuation of its nationals and other European nationals on Tuesday. As of the time of this report, at least 350 French nationals have been evacuated from Niger, the foreign ministry said. Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, Nigeria’s former Minister for External Affairs said that the actions taken by the African Union (AU) regarding the coup in the Republic of Niger is a deliberate attempt instigated by South Africa to undermine the authority of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
In an interview with ARISE NEWS television on Monday, Professor Akinyemi claimed that though the African Union and ECOWAS were supposed to be on the same side, this was not the case, as the decisions that were made by the AU in taking the lead on the Niger crisis were instigated by South Africa. He said that South Africans had earlier blamed Tinubu for the coup in Niger, and eventually influenced the AU to take steps in order to trump ECOWAS, and in turn, Tinubu, who is the Chairman of the commission.
Explaining his view further, Prof. Akinyemi said: “Under the tradition of the African unit, something they copied from the OAU, ECOWAS is supposed to take the lead in confronting the issue, and then, the African Union will follow up, Instead, the African Union took the lead in responding to the issue in Niger, why? This was something masterminded by South Africa to thump President Tinubu in the face. It was an Anti-Tinubu action by the African Union.
“Why do I say that South Africa is behind this? There is a video that is going around which showed an analysis on a South African elevation station, which blames Tinubu for the coup in Niger, that it is because President Tinubu is illegitimate, because his election is contentious, etc, that the coup had happened. Now, this is coming from a nation where their president has an anti-corruption charge still hanging around his neck, which the majority view, the majority party, the ANC, in parliament, they had used to overturn the decision of the judicial panel which had found him guilty of corruption.
“This is coming from the same South Africa that is now blaming Tinubu. So, the AU stepped quickly into the breach in order, simply, to thump President Tinubu in the face.” The professor then said that ECOWAS had put itself in a tough position by “imposing a 7-day limit for a reaction, while African Union gave them 15 days, creating a hiatus that the Niger regime can exploit by saying ‘we will listen to the African Union rather than the ECOWAS’.
“We should keep that in mind, because in fact, the problem for ECOWAS is not being posed by the western countries. It is being posed by the African Union, being instigated by South Africa.” On Friday, the 28th of July, the AU had given the coup plotters in Niger a 15-day ultimatum, giving no actions that will be taken if the orders are nor complied with.
However, on Sunday, the 30th of July ECOWAS gave them a 7-day ultimatum, saying that if the demand was not met within the set time frame, all necessary measures, including force, will be taken to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger.
Although the coup leaders are trying to move away from France, their former colonial master and pandering towards Russia, Russia said she has no plans to use its military in Niger, a top diplomat said Wednesday, countering widely held views on social media that Russia would side militarily with the coup plotters in the West African country.
“Russia opposes a military solution to the conflict, Russia has no plans to use its armed forces in Niger”, Russia’s Ambassador to Nigeria Alexei Shebarshin said in a comment the embassy shared with newsmen on Wednesday. There have been claims that Russia will support Niger militarily should ECOWAS make true its threat to use force to reinstate the democratically elected government there.
The rumours were fueled by statements of the coup plotters and similar coup plotters in other West African countries that they were jettisoning Western support for Russian support. Also, scores of Nigeriens who marched in support of the coup burnt French flags and raised Russian flags, creating an impression Russia was behind the coup plotters.
The July 26 coup in Niger received widespread condemnation from world leaders and other analysts.
